Skilful sub-seasonal meteorological forecasting for efficient hydrological modelling

Name of the Speaker: Dr. Atul Kumar Sahai

Title of the Seminar: Skilful sub-seasonal meteorological forecasting for efficient hydrological modelling

Date and Time: 24 March 2021 (Wednesday), 4:00pm

Online Platform: MS Teams [link to  the video of the seminar]

About the Speaker: Dr. Atul Kumar Sahai has obtained his Masters and Ph D degree in Mathematics from the University of Allahabad. He is Scientist G and the Project Director of Monsoon Mission at Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) Pune, and is leading the group of Extended Range Prediction. Dr. Sahai has expertise in climate variability and prediction, climate modeling, tropical convection, monsoon dynamics, extreme weather, MJO, role of remote teleconnections from ENSO and IOD, climate change and regional climate scenario generation for impact assessment studies based on regional climate models, operational climate services, flood/drought, cyclones and extreme precipitation prediction, heat and cold wave prediction, high-performance computing, and utilization of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning in the field of climate science.

His most notable research led to the development of a dynamical ensemble prediction system for predicting the intra-seasonal oscillations of the Indian summer monsoon season. Due to the remarkable skill of this system, it has been awarded the ISO 9001:2008 standard certification in the year 2016 and it has been operationalised in India Meteorological Department. Since then, it is being used for real time forecasting of the onset, active/break spells and withdrawal phases of the Indian summer monsoon, heavy rainfall events, cold waves, heatwaves, Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillations, Madden-Julian Oscillation, cyclogenesis, and fluctuations in summer/winter monsoon. Dr. Sahai has also formulated several strategies for the application of these extended range forecasts in agriculture, hydrology, health, and disaster management. He was given additional charge as Head, Climate
Research and Services, India Meteorological Department (IMD) Pune for two years (2017 2018). During this tenure, he integrated and lead IMD Pune operations as per the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) formulated by World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and established Regional Climate Centre. Dr Sahai is also a Member of Scientific Steering Committee of World Weather Research Programme (2019-2022) of WMO.

Abstract: Dynamical extended range prediction provides an outlook of meteorological parameters up to 2-3 weeks in advance. The extended range prediction group at IITM has developed an
ensemble prediction system based on the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) model adopted from NCEP, USA. This prediction system proves to be very useful in predicting the intraseasonal fluctuations such as onset, active/break spells and withdrawal within the Indian summer monsoon and also the extreme weather events such as heat/cold waves, cyclones and heavy rainfall events. This system is also skilful in predicting the extremes in monthly rainfall. The India Meteorological Department is generating weekly agricultural, hydrological and health bulletins based on these extended range outlooks.

Such predictions in rainfall and other surface meteorological variables can also be used as an input to hydrological models to predict impending floods and inundations along river basins. Long lead-time predictions provide sufficient time for the decision-making process for the stakeholders. River basin rainfall forecast over the Indian region during the monsoon season in the extended range thus has several useful applications in the hydrometeorological forecast domain.

In this talk it will be discussed that how the extended-range forecast is generated and how it can be used for efficient hydrological modelling to improve the flood forecast, dam management etc.


Date(s) - 24/03/2021
4:00 pm - 5:00 pm

Interdisciplinary Centre for Water Research (ICWaR) - IISc Bangalore